A joint US-Israeli strike killed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday. But even after his assassination, many senior US officials remain skeptical that a joint military operation by the two countries against the Islamic Republic will result in regime change.
Before and after the invasion of Iran, US President Donald Trump and other US officials have indicated that the US goal is to dismantle Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs as well as remove the country's regime.
In a video message posted on his social media account Truth Social on Sunday, Trump urged the Iranian people, saying, "I call on those Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom... to seize this moment and take back your country."
But three officials familiar with US intelligence said there is considerable doubt that Iran's embattled opposition groups will be able to overthrow the religious regime that has been in power since 1979.
None of the US officials Reuters spoke to ruled out the possibility of the current Iranian government collapsing. The current government is under pressure from the loss of key figures in ongoing US and Israeli air strikes. It has also become deeply unpopular with the public after its heavy-handed crackdown on protests in January. But officials say that is unlikely in the near future.
Reuters reported earlier that a CIA assessment submitted to the White House weeks before the attacks on Iran suggested that if Khamenei were killed, he could be replaced by a leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or a like-minded religious leader.
A US official familiar with internal White House discussions said that IRGC officials were unlikely to surrender voluntarily, partly because they are part of a vast network of beneficiaries designed to maintain internal loyalty.
The CIA based its assessment on a report by another US intelligence agency that said no IRGC members had defected when Iranian security forces cracked down on anti-government protesters in January.
Three other sources said defections were a prerequisite for any successful revolution. The sources asked not to be identified by the specific intelligence agency. All of the sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence assessment.
Trump himself said on Tuesday that he planned to resume contact with Iran, suggesting Washington does not see the current government falling anytime soon. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The CIA also declined to comment.
Much debate, little consensus
Iranian President Masoud Pajhwok said yesterday that a “board of directors” consisting of the head of the judiciary, a member of the Guardian Council and himself had temporarily assumed the role of Iran’s supreme leader.
Iranian state television reported that Security Chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to plunder and isolate Iran. He warned “separatist groups” of a “severe response” after the two countries invaded Iran. Reuters could not independently verify the state media report.
Israel also bombed a girls’ primary school in Iran, killing more than 150 people, most of them children.
US intelligence agencies’ discussions of the implications of the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei were not limited to a leadership change.
Two U.S. officials said there has been a wide-ranging debate among officials since January about the impact of Khamenei’s assassination, but no consensus has been reached. The debate has centered on whether Khamenei’s assassination would significantly change the way the United States negotiates with Iran over its nuclear program.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there is also debate about how much Khamenei’s death or removal would deter Iran from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capabilities.
After protests in Iran in January, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East and a close aide, has spoken several times with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the country’s last shah. The U.S. envoy’s move raises questions about how much support the Trump administration would give him if he were to come to power if the Iranian government were to fall.
But senior U.S. officials have grown increasingly frustrated in recent weeks. They believe that a Washington-backed opposition leader will not be able to effectively rein in Iran.
“If the Iranian people finally take to the streets after the US and Israeli attacks stop, their success will depend on the rank-and-file members of the security forces. Whether they stand against the people or join them remains to be seen,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a US-based think tank, and a former senior US intelligence official.
Panikoff added, “Otherwise, those who have weapons can use those weapons to maintain power.”
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