Did Trump launch an unplanned attack on Iran?
The first US military casualties were reported on Sunday since the ongoing attacks on Iran and the start of the US and Israeli aggression. This has put US President Donald Trump under intense pressure. There have been demands for a clear explanation of his future plans for Iran.
Trump's critics are demanding more transparency from the White House about the next steps. According to the opposition and analysts, the lack of a clear plan so far has created the risk of the United States being involved in a protracted war. Trump has repeatedly promised to avoid such a war.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington and an Iran expert, said that even if the administration has an action plan, it has not yet released it.
Vatanka added that Trump now needs to move towards a larger political project. It will not be limited to military operations. Rather, his administration now needs to discuss in detail and decide what kind of regime change it actually wants.
If that happens, the operation will not be a four-day, four-week or four-month operation, the Iran expert warned. It could turn into a long fight.
Trump has repeatedly called the 2003 Iraq invasion a big mistake. On the other hand, in June last year, he claimed that Iran's nuclear facilities had been "destroyed" by a series of US strikes. But he has not given a clear explanation in public why a new attack is needed now. For this, he is being criticized.
In his State of the Union address last week, Trump briefly mentioned Iran's nuclear program and the threat of ballistic missiles. However, there was no mention of regime change. He said that he wants to resolve the issue of Iran's potential military threat through diplomacy.
Democrats fear that the decision to attack Iran could turn into an endless war because Trump has not announced a specific target.
Jim Hymes, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told National Public Radio (NPR), “Where is the end of this? We can bomb Iran for a long time with the Israelis. But what do we expect to do that?”
Hymmes added, “Is the goal to change the regime? But there are very few examples of regime change through aerial bombing. In fact, it is rare for the US military to successfully change the regime in a country.”
Vatanka warned that the current Iranian regime is unlikely to fall without strong popular opposition or a direct US military presence. However, he believes that using intelligence agencies is a better option than sending in troops directly.
Regarding the implementation of the second option, Vatanka said that the most intelligent way is to conduct operations through the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) field sources. They know where and when senior leaders are hiding.
Stating that the same intelligence sources should be used to create a new political polarization within the administration, Vatanka said, "People need to be convinced that this regime is over. It will not return to its previous form. This is how political transformation in the country should be brought about. But this requires a lot of investment and it is not at all certain whether the United States can do it successfully or not."
Steven Cash, a former CIA operations officer and head of the Steady State organization of retired US national security officials, finds the lack of a plan for the future "very worrying." He believes that Trump's main goal is probably not to change the Iranian regime. But to create a situation that will influence the upcoming US midterm elections.
Steven Cash said, “From the Korean War to the Cold War to Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan, we have learned one thing for sure. It is not enough to start a war, you also need to have a plan to end it.”
After the news of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other top leaders was confirmed, Trump said that those who are left are now interested in talks.
Trump told ‘The Atlantic’, “They want to talk and I agree. I will talk to them. They should have done it a long time ago. It was very realistic and easy. They should have accepted it a long time ago. They are too late.”
However, the talks may not be so easy, with the ongoing attacks on Iran and Tehran’s counterattacks across the Middle East. Tehran, however, has denied the talks are real.
Steven Cash said, “From the Korean War to the Cold War to Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan, we have learned one thing for sure. It is not enough to start a war, you also need to have a plan to end it.”
After the news of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other top leaders was confirmed, Trump said that those who are left are now interested in talks.
“They want to talk and I am willing to talk. I will talk to them. They should have done it earlier. It was very realistic and easy. They should have accepted it earlier. They are too late.”
However, the talks may not be so easy, with the ongoing attacks on Iran and Tehran’s counterattacks across the Middle East. Tehran, however, has denied the talks.
“If he (Trump) really wanted regime change, there were many opposition leaders he could have called to the White House and said, ‘This is the person who is going to be the next ruler of Iran.’ But he’s not doing that. It makes us think that he’s probably still thinking about making a deal with the current regime,” Vatanka said.
However, Iran’s retaliatory strike may change that perception. Because Trump may have to take a tougher stance to avoid appearing weak.
Three US soldiers were killed and five were injured in Iran’s retaliatory strike yesterday.
In a video message posted the day before Saturday announcing the strike, Trump directly supported “regime change” in Iran. However, he gave little direction on how that would happen, other than calling on the Iranian people to wake up.
Trump said in the video message, “For many years, you have asked America for help. Now you have a president who is doing what you want. So let’s see what you do in return. Now is the time to take action. Don't let this opportunity pass you by.
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